Nationals vs Phillies: Nationals (+141)

Nationals win probability: 42%

Aaron Nola taking on one of the most lethal offenses in baseball? I'll happily take the +141 underdog.

Sure, the Washington Nationals lost slugger Luis Garcia Jr., but with CJ Abrams and James Wood still leading the way, this offense should be just fine against a pitcher who has allowed a 51% hard-hit rate and a 12% barrel rate over his last three starts.

Cardinals vs Yankees: Yankees (-178)

Yankees win probability: 64%

Not the sexiest price to pay for an offense that's underperforming at the moment, but they're taking on another offense that's in the same boat and sending Michael McGreevy to the mound.

McGreevy has posted a 5.06 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over his last five starts, and he's been struggling quite a bit.

On the other side, the New York Yankees have future ace Cam Schlittler on the bump. The young fella should be just fine against this cold St. Louis Cardinals lineup.

Pirates vs Brewers: Brewers (-135)

Brewers win probability: 43%

I find it extremely tough to pass up a solid moneyline price on the Milwaukee Brewers, let alone back the Pittsburgh Pirates when they own an 81 wRC+, .282 wOBA, and .627 OPS over their last 12 games.

Milwaukee has been lights out. Trust the superior team.

Giants vs Rangers: Giants (+102)

Giants win probability: 50%

Am I lazy for automatically siding with the San Francisco Giants because Cal Quantrill is likely taking the mound? No? Carry on? Copy.

The Texas Rangers starter owns a 6.57 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over his last three starts, and now he draws a Giants offense that's been humming over its last six games. San Francisco has posted a 111 wRC+, while striking out just 17% of the time with a 9.1% walk rate.

Meanwhile, the Rangers have been scuffling offensively, sporting an 87 wRC+, a 28.2% strikeout rate, and a .662 OPS over their last six games.

I like the Giants against a struggling pitcher and a struggling offense.

Dodgers vs Cubs: Dodgers (-122)

Dodgers win probability: 55%

Both teams are coming off series losses to AL East opponents this weekend, but who picks up the pieces and bounces back?

I lean with the Los Angeles Dodgers for a few reasons. For starters, how often do we get this kind of price on the Dodgers?

Secondly, Justin Wrobleski may not be their most sustainable starter, but the Dodgers have a significant edge in the bullpen. The Chicago Cubs own a 4.52 xERA out of the bullpen this season, while Los Angeles sits at 3.60.

Offensively, both teams are swinging it well, but the Dodgers are generating far more hard contact than the Cubs. Give me the Monstars of L.A.

Blue Jays vs Astros: Astros (-125)

Astros win probability: 56%

Yes, the Toronto Blue Jays have looked a bit better as of late, but are we really expecting Shane Bieber to hold down this scorching-hot Astros offense? I'm not.

The Houston Astros have posted a 141 wRC+, .378 wOBA, and .858 OPS over their last six games. On the other side, right-hander Cristian Javier has been wheeling and dealing, recording a 3.00 ERA, 32.08% strikeout rate, and 33.6% whiff rate.

I think this is an absolute feast spot for the Astros bats against Bieber.

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Rays vs Rockies: Rays (-150)

Rays win probability: 60%

It's extremely difficult for me, and probably anyone else, to look at a starting pitcher with an 8.74 home ERA, 2.07 WHIP, and 15.95% strikeout rate and say, "I want to back this guy," with a straight face.

Michael Lorenzen has been atrocious all season, and somehow he's been even worse at home.

He now draws a Tampa Bay Rays offense that hasn't been at its best lately, but is still one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.

With left-hander Ian Seymour on the mound, who has been nails over his last three starts, I think it's safe to lay the $1.50 price.

Padres vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (+100)

Diamondbacks win probability: 50%

I'm shocked myself that I'm willing to trust Brandon Pfaadt here against a red-hot San Diego Padres team. Luckily, these Arizona Diamondbacks bats have also woken up. Over their last 12 games, they've generated a 40% hard-hit rate while posting a 129 wRC+ and .820 OPS.

Pfaadt, on the other hand, has improved tremendously over his last five starts, recording a 1.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and just a 2.54% walk rate.

On the other side, Michael King owns a 4.16 xERA and nearly a 15% barrel rate over his last three starts. With how hot Arizona has been at the plate, I think the Diamondbacks are the side to back.

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