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Rangers vs Rays: Rays (-153)

Rays win probability: 60%

With Nathan Eovaldi no longer taking the mound for the Rangers this afternoon, I want no part of backing Texas. Instead, Cole Winn gets the ball, and his 6.11 ERA on the season does not inspire much confidence.

I'll gladly side with Shane McClanahan and the Rays, even at a steeper price. I simply do not trust Winn to keep Tampa Bay's lineup in check through the first five innings, let alone deep into this game.

Royals vs Twins: Royals (+127)

Royals win probability: 44%

Is Bailey Ober really worth laying -130? Or is it Minnesota's ice-cold offense that's convincing you to pay the juice?

Sure, Royals left-hander Noah Cameron owns a 6.18 ERA over his last five starts, but Ober has been just as shaky over that same stretch. Neither offense has been lighting it up lately, so if both starters have been struggling and the bats have been quiet, why not take a shot with the underdog at +127?

Yankees vs White Sox: White Sox (-106)

White Sox win probability: 52%

It is hard for me to overlook what Sean Burke has done over his last five starts. The White Sox right-hander has been dealing, posting a 1.74 ERA, 2.02 xERA, 0.84 WHIP, and an impressive 36.44% strikeout rate during that span. On the other side, Yankees left-hander Ryan Weathers owns a 5.48 ERA over his last five outings with a 41% hard-hit rate.

Neither offense has been swinging it particularly well over the last few weeks, but this feels like a spot where the White Sox are primed for another breakout, similar to what we saw against the Astros on Sunday. With Burke pitching as well as he has, I like the value on Chicago.

Cubs vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-111)

Cardinals win probability: 52%

After the Cardinals' thrilling extra-innings win last night, I think they find a way to even the series today.

Javier Assad gets the ball for the Cubs, and some of his underlying metrics over his last five starts stand out for the wrong reasons. He owns a 4.14 xERA while allowing a 45.10% hard-hit rate. The Cardinals offense has been cold over the last few weeks, but one thing they have continued to do is generate hard contact, posting at least a 42% hard-hit rate over their last 21 games.

Andre Pallante has much stronger underlying numbers than Assad during that span, and with the value on St. Louis, I lean toward the Birds taking this one.

Pirates vs Reds: Reds (+106)

Reds win probability: 48%

Talk about an all-time MID-OFF. Both starting pitchers own ERAs north of 6.91 over their last five starts, and neither offense has managed a wRC+ above 100 over its last 12 games.

With that said, I am backing the underdog. Cincinnati's offense has been quiet, but it continues to generate plenty of hard contact, giving me confidence that some positive regression is coming.

On top of that, the Reds have consistently been a high-strikeout lineup, and Pirates left-hander Hunter Barco owns just a 13% strikeout rate this season, limiting his ability to capitalize on that weakness.

Give me the dog!

Marlins vs Mets: Mets (-115)

Mets win probability: 54%

I am not worried about another Eury Perez masterclass, especially with how well Nolan McLean has been pitching. Over his last five starts, the Mets right-hander has been even better, posting a 1.20 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while holding opponents to a 32% hard-hit rate and 6.49% barrel rate.

At the plate, the Mets have continued to swing it well over their last 21 games, while the Marlins have cooled off considerably since their red-hot June and early July stretch. Over their last 12 games, Miami owns just an 86 wRC+, .219 wOBA, and .137 ISO.

Give me the Amazin' Mets!

Nationals vs Braves: Braves (-134)

Braves win probability: 57%

Jake Irvin takes the bump for the Nationals, and his recent underlying numbers leave plenty to be desired. Over his last few starts, he has allowed a ton of hard contact and barrels while posting a 4.50 ERA.

The Nationals offense has been hot, but Grant Holmes and the Braves can keep them in check at home.

Atlanta has quietly been swinging the bat well over its last 12 games, and this feels like a spot where that lineup breaks through. I also think Washington's hot stretch at the plate cools off sooner rather than later, making the Braves the side I want to back.

Red Sox vs Athletics: Athletics (+160)

Athletics win probability: 38%

I am simply not laying -163 with the Red Sox just because Sonny Gray is on the mound. While he is putting together a season worthy of AL Cy Young consideration, the veteran right-hander has looked a bit shaky over his last few starts.

Athletics starter Mason Barnett has struggled mightily in his recent outings, but the offense is in for a turnaround. At this price, I would rather take a shot with the underdog than lay heavy juice behind a pitcher who may be showing signs of regression.