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7.29 MLB expert picks for today


일단 몇개에 픽이 맞았나....확인부터 하겠습니다.....무조건 따라서 배팅하시면 거지꼴을 면치 못합니다.




 

 

Mariners vs Rangers: Rangers (+125)

 

Rangers win probability: 44%

 

I get to back an offense with a 135 wRC+, .365 wOBA, and .837 OPS over its last six games against one with a 93 wRC+, .108 ISO, and .674 OPS, all at plus money? Yeah, give me the Rangers in this spot.

 

The Mariners have posted a wRC+ below 100 for more than a month now, while the Rangers have been on an absolute tear offensively.

 

Kumar Rocker has shown flashes throughout the season, and he'll do enough to keep Seattle's lineup in check. With the way Texas is swinging the bats right now, plus money is too good to pass up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Orioles vs Tigers: Orioles (-111)

 

Orioles win probability: 52%

 

Keider Montero has been solid for the Tigers over his last few outings, but so has Kyle Bradish. I think this one comes down to which offense I trust more, and that's Baltimore's.

 

Over their last 12 games, the Orioles own a 113 wRC+, .334 wOBA, and .745 OPS, while continuing to swing the bats at a much more consistent level.

 

As for the Tigers, they've been one of baseball's most inconsistent offenses all season. I want no part of trying to time when that lineup is going to break out, especially against a pitcher like Bradish. Give me the better offense in what I expect to be a tightly contested game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diamondbacks vs Pirates: Diamondbacks (+111)

 

Diamondbacks win probability: 48%

 

It's a battle of mid-tier starters as Merrill Kelly and Mitch Keller square off this evening. Similar to the rest of the teams I'm backing today, I want the hotter offense, and that's Arizona. The Diamondbacks have completely flipped the switch over the last few weeks, swinging the bats with confidence.

 

Meanwhile, the Pirates have gone ice cold over their last six games, posting a 68 wRC+, .262 wOBA, and .092 ISO.

 

I'll gladly take the plus money underdog in a matchup where I trust the hotter lineup to make the difference.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Phillies vs Marlins: Marlins (+170)

 

Marlins win probability: 37%

 

The Phillies are coming off an 11-run outburst against the Yankees last night, and I have a rule to fade teams immediately after massive offensive performances. Sure, the Marlins haven't been the sexiest team to back since June, but I have no interest in laying money with a team that just scored nearly two touchdowns worth of runs.

 

I'll take my chances fading the offensive regression in this spot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blue Jays vs Nationals: Nationals (-115)

 

Nationals win probability: 54%

 

The old man is on the mound against one of the hottest lineups in baseball, and I want the Nationals in this spot.

 

Not only have the Blue Jays' bats gone ice cold, but they're also sending Max Scherzer to the mound to stop the bleeding. That hasn't gone well this season. Scherzer owns a 10.23 ERA, 5.58 xERA, and 1.73 WHIP, and he hasn't looked like the pitcher he once was.

 

Andrew Alvarez hasn't exactly been lights out for Washington either, but the Nationals offense has been swinging it well, while Toronto's lineup has looked lifeless. I'll gladly back the hotter offense at plus money in this matchup.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guardians vs Reds: Reds (-156)

 

Reds win probability: 61%

 

Not a fan of laying this much juice with a team like the Reds, but when Slade Cecconi is on the mound, it's tough not to fade him.

 

The Guardians right-hander owns a 7.43 ERA and 2.02 WHIP over his last three starts, while allowing a 55% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate. That's a recipe for disaster, especially in a hitter-friendly park like Great American Ball Park.

 

On the other side, Chase Burns has done an excellent job protecting his home field this season, posting a 2.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at Great American Ball Park. I don't love the price, but this is a matchup where I'll happily side with Cincinnati.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Braves vs Mets: Mets (+104)

 

Mets win probability: 49%

 

With Martin Perez posting a 5.40 ERA, 6.46 xERA, and 1.57 WHIP over his last three outings, I was already leaning toward the Mets. Then I looked at how sustainable Zac Thornton has been, and it only strengthened my confidence in backing New York at home tonight.

 

Neither offense has been setting the world on fire lately, but the Mets have been generating much more hard contact while also drawing significantly more walks. I think those extra baserunners, combined with the pitching edge, make the Mets the right side in Queens tonight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yankees vs White Sox: Yankees (-135)

 

Yankees win probability: 57%

 

The White Sox exploded for 12 runs on Sunday afternoon against the Astros to avoid the series sweep. Now they welcome the New York Yankees to town.

 

Chicago will send Noah Schultz to the mound, and he has been hit hard all season. Over his last three starts, Schultz owns a 6.59 ERA, 6.89 xERA, and 1.83 WHIP.

 

Neither offense has been lighting it up, especially if you take away Chicago's 12-run outburst. Max Fried should give the Yankees a significant edge on the mound, and I also like fading the White Sox after such a massive offensive performance. That's enough for me to lean with New York in this spot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Red Sox vs Athletics: Athletics (+160)

Athletics win probability: 38%

Price-wise and straight up, I want the Athletics. Sure, the Red Sox have been one of the best stories in baseball over the last month, but they simply have not been scoring runs consistently. If the Athletics can jump on left-hander Payton Tolle early, they have a great chance to come away with the win.

On top of that, I have no interest in laying -163 with an offense that owns an 80 wRC+, .291 wOBA, and .138 ISO over its last week. At this price, I'll gladly take the value with the A's.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brewers vs Giants: Brewers (-125)

Brewers win probability: 56%

Brewers right-hander Brandon Sproat hasn't been particularly sharp over his last three outings, posting a 5.60 xERA and 1.71 WHIP. On the other side, Tyler Mahle has been solid enough, but nothing that really moves the needle.

Tonight in the Bay, I want to back the far better offense, and that's Milwaukee. The Brewers have been seeing the ball much better lately, while the Giants have posted a wRC+ below 100 with a strikeout rate north of 26% over their last six games.

Getting the Brewers at -125 feels like a steal in my book.

 

 

 



음...반타작이다.......패배 경기를 보시면 1점차가 많았다...


마핸승....양키스 마핸승....좋네요.......밀워키에 패배.....보스턴에 정배당..그외는 크게 나쁘지 않았네요....




 

내일 경기를 보시면...

 

 

아직 나오지 않았습니다..그럼 다른것으로..제가 일찍 취침을 해야하는지라..









osh Inglis' expert pick: Reds -1.5

Price: 43¢ (+133) at Polymarket


It's doubleheader day at Great American Ballpark, and the Cincinnati Reds have a sizable edge on the mound with Chase Burns getting the ball in Game 1 and working on a possible longer leash. 


He has quickly emerged as one of the NL Cy Young odds favorites at 20/1, and the Reds have won seven straight Burns starts with the run line cashing in every one.


On the other side, Slade Cecconi has allowed 15 runs over his last three starts and could be in for another rough outing if the Cleveland Guardians ask him to wear some innings.


If the Reds jump out early, there's also a good chance the Guardians turn to the B bullpen to preserve their top relievers for Game 2, where Cincinnati doesn't have a listed starter.


 

The winds are blowing out at Great American Ballpark, which only adds to the run-scoring upside while giving even more support to the strikeout-heavy Burns. I'm playing this down to +115/+120.




토쉬 잉글리스의 전문가 예상: 레즈 -1.5

배당률: 폴리마켓 기준 43센트(+133)


오늘은 그레이트 아메리칸 볼파크에서 더블헤더 경기가 열립니다. 신시내티 레즈는 1차전 선발 투수로 체이스 번스를 내세워 마운드에서 상당한 우위를 점하고 있습니다. 번스는 비교적 긴 이닝을 소화할 것으로 예상됩니다.


번스는 20/1의 배당률로 내셔널리그 사이영상을 유력하게 거론되는 유력 후보 중 한 명으로 빠르게 떠올랐으며, 레즈는 번스가 선발 등판한 경기에서 7연승을 기록했고, 모든 경기에서 런 라인이 적중했습니다.


반면, 클리블랜드 가디언스의 슬레이드 세코니는 최근 3경기에서 15실점을 허용했으며, 가디언스가 그에게 많은 이닝을 맡긴다면 또다시 힘든 경기를 치를 가능성이 있습니다.


레즈가 초반에 앞서나간다면, 가디언스는 2차전을 위해 에이스 불펜을 아껴두기 위해 B팀을 투입할 가능성도 높습니다. 신시내티는 2차전 선발 투수가 아직 정해지지 않았습니다.


 

그레이트 아메리칸 볼파크는 바람이 바깥쪽으로 불고 있어 득점 가능성이 높아지고, 삼진이 많은 번스에게 더욱 유리한 조건이 되고 있습니다. 저는 이 경기에 +115/+120 배당률을 걸겠습니다.












Jon Metler's expert pick: Red Sox moneyline

Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket


If this game had been played a month ago, I'd view this matchup much differently for the Boston Red Sox.


But after acquiring Jahmai Jones from the Tigers and trading Connelly Early to the Nationals for Curtis Mead, Boston now has two additional right-handed bats it can slot near the top of the order against Athletics left-hander Gage Jump. Mead did exit his first game after a hit-by-pitch on his hand, but X-rays were negative and he may play tonight.


Those aren't the only matchup advantages, either. The Red Sox are expected to send seven right-handed hitters to the plate, creating a difficult matchup for Jump. His slider is his go-to putaway pitch, but a lineup loaded with right-handed bats should make it much harder for him to sequence his pitches effectively and rely on that slider to generate swings and misses.


 

The Red Sox are trading as 58-cent favorites on Polymarket, but I make them closer to 63 cents. That's enough of an edge for me to hit the button.



존 메틀러의 전문가 예측: 보스턴 레드삭스 승리 (머니라인)

배당률: 폴리마켓 57센트 (-133)


만약 이 경기가 한 달 전에 열렸다면, 보스턴 레드삭스에게 유리한 매치업이라고는 전혀 생각하지 못했을 겁니다.


하지만 디트로이트 타이거스에서 자마이 존스를 영입하고, 워싱턴 내셔널스에서 코넬리 얼리를 커티스 미드와 트레이드하면서, 

보스턴은 오클랜드 애슬레틱스의 좌완 투수 게이지 점프를 상대로 타선 상위권에 배치할 수 있는 우타자 두 명을 추가했습니다. 미드는 첫 경기에서 손에 몸에 맞는 부상을 입고 교체되었지만, 엑스레이 검사 결과 이상이 없어 오늘 경기 출전이 가능할 것으로 보입니다.


상대방에게 유리한 점은 이것뿐만이 아닙니다. 레드삭스는 7명의 우타자를 타석에 내보낼 것으로 예상되어 점프에게 까다로운 상대가 될 것입니다. 점프의 주력 구종은 슬라이더이지만, 우타자가 많은 타선은 그가 효과적인 투구 순서를 짜고 슬라이더에 의존해 헛스윙을 유도하는 것을 훨씬 어렵게 만들 것입니다.


 

폴리마켓에서 보스턴 레드삭스가 58센트의 배당률로 유리한 위치에 있지만, 저는 63센트 정도로 봅니다. 이 정도면 베팅 버튼을 누르기에 충분한 우위라고 생각합니다.














Joe Osborne's expert pick: Braves vs Mets Over 7.5

Price: 49¢ (+100) at Polymarket


The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets have all the ingredients for a high-scoring game tonight at Citi Field.


A strong 16-mph wind blowing toward the left-field wall will give each offense a boost, and the Mets have historically handled Chris Sale well, posting an impressive .920 OPS across 107 at-bats against the veteran lefty.


New York’s offense is also showing signs of life, ranking fifth in OPS over the past week while enjoying success against left-handed pitching this month.


Even if Sale exits with a lead, Atlanta’s bullpen has been a major concern, ranking 27th in ERA and dead last in FIP over the last two weeks.


 

On the other side, Christian Scott draws a difficult assignment against a Braves lineup that continues to mash right-handed pitching, making eight-plus total runs a realistic expectation.




조 오스본 전문가 추천: 브레이브스 vs 메츠 7.5 오버

배당률: 폴리마켓 49센트 (+100)


오늘 밤 시티 필드에서 열리는 애틀랜타 브레이브스와 뉴욕 메츠의 경기는 다득점 경기가 될 가능성이 높습니다.


좌익수 담장 쪽으로 부는 시속 16마일의 강풍은 양 팀 타선에 유리하게 작용할 것이며, 메츠는 역사적으로 크리스 세일을 상대로 강세를 보여왔습니다. 세일을 상대로 107타석에서 0.920의 인상적인 OPS를 기록했습니다.


뉴욕 타선 역시 최근 살아나고 있는 조짐을 보이고 있습니다. 지난주 OPS에서 5위를 기록했고, 이번 달 좌완 투수를 상대로 좋은 성적을 거두고 있습니다.


세일이 리드를 지키지 못하고 마운드를 내려온다고 하더라도, 애틀랜타의 불펜은 큰 불안감을 안겨주고 있습니다. 지난 2주 동안 평균자책점은 27위, FIP는 최하위를 기록했습니다.


 

반면 리스천 스콧은 우완 투수를 상대로 여전히 강세를 보이는 브레이브스 타선을 상대하는 어려운 임무를 맡았습니다. 브레이브스가 8점 이상을 득점할 가능성이 매우 높습니다.



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날씨가..이러합니다...참고하세요.






 



신시...보스턴....애틀란타와 메츠 오바를 추천하고 있습니다.


패널이나 분석하시는분들이나 모두 비스무리합니다.일치하는 경기만 가져가세요^^

 

 

 

 

 

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